douteur: 6455. THE 'UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS' OF CONFRONTING ISIS IN IRAQ. THE LACK OF CREDIBLE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ABOUT ISIS IS LIKE WHAT IT WAS ABOUT THE TALIBAN. ONE STRIKING SIMILARITY BETWEEN CANADA'S FIRST COMBAT MISSION TO IRAQ AND OUR LONG, DRAINING INVOLVEMENT IN THE AFGHAN WAR IS THE ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF CREDIBLE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AT THE OUTSET. WE KNEW ALMOST NOTHING ABOUT THE TALIBAN FOR YEARS, EVEN AS WE BEGAN FIGHTING THEM, AND WE KNOW EVEN LESS ABOUT ISIS NOW. IT WAS OTTAWA'S ABYSMAL LACK OF INTEL IN 2005 THAT ALLOWED US TO EAGERLY LOBBY NATO TO PUT US IN CHARGE OF KANDAHAR PROVINCE, THE TALIBAN'S HOME BASE. 4 FRUSTRATING YEARS LATER, OUR SMALL CONTINGENT OF UNDER 3,000 TROOPS WAS HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS IN SUPPRESSING ESCALATING TALIBAN OPERATIONS THERE, AND A LARGE U.S. MARINE SURGE WAS NEEDED TO TAKE OVER THE COMBAT LEAD. TODAY, THE U.S.-LED COALITION THAT WE'VE JOINED SEEMS TO HAVE A SIMILARLY BLANK INTELLIGENCE SLATE ON THIS LATEST ENEMY AS IT RAMPAGES THROUGH SYRIA AND PARTS OF IRAQ. ONE COULD SAY WE HAVE A MIX OF "KNOWN UNKNOWNS" AND EVEN MORE "UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS" TO USE THE CONVOLUTED LANGUAGE OF FORMER U.S. DEFENCE SECRETARY DONALD RUMSFELD. TAKE THE ISIS'S STRENGTH. U.S. ESTIMATES SOUND LIKE THEY'RE ARRIVED AT BY CIA ANALYSTS THROWING DARTS AT A NUMBERS BOARD. BACK IN JULY, ISIS WAS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 10,000 JIHADISTS, BUT WITHIN THE PAST 2 WEEKS ESTIMATES HAVE SUDDENLY SOARED INTO THE 20,000 TO 30,000 RANGE. AS IF THAT SWING WAS NOT DISCONCERTING ENOUGH, THE WHITE HOUSE AND U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY HAVE BEEN BLAMING EACH OTHER FOR BEING ESSENTIALLY OUT TO LUNCH OVER THE ENTIRE ISIS THREAT. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA CLAIMED THAT U.S. INTELLIGENCE DOWNRIGHT MISSED ISIS'S GROWING STRENGTH LAST WINTER, WHEN IT EMERGED FROM ITS OPPOSITION ROLE TO SYRIA'S ASSAD REGIME INTO «THE MOST SUPREMELY BRUTAL GUERRILLA MOVEMENT IN THE WORLD». OBAMA NOTED THAT HIS SPIES ALSO MISSED THE CATASTROPHIC DECAY WITHIN THE LARGE AND COSTLY IRAQ MILITARY (NEAR 200 000 SOLDIERS), WHICH LET ISIS CAPTURE SOPHISTICATED U.S.-SUPPLIED WEAPONRY TO THREATEN THE COLLAPSE OF IRAQ ITSELF. SO IF WE ARE TO BELIEVE OBAMA, WE ARE IN THIS WAR TODAY LARGELY THANKS TO THE WOEFUL RECORD OF THE KEY INTELLIGENCE NETWORKS THAT WE MUST RELY ON FOR MILITARY VICTORY IN FUTURE. OLLÉ !

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